The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on...

Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Mongolia. All end-June performance criteria for the Second Review were met. The authorities have also implemented all but two of the end-June structural benchmarks, albeit with some delay. The creation of a...

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy...

Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect the way an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the randomness of natural shocks, this paper assesses empirically the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. The evidence supports key themes in this literature, and...

This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national...

This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia,...

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank's policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It is found that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful both for...

The analysis is structured around the standard taxonomy of transmission channels. A monetary tightening must limit banks' ability to supply loans by reducing bank reserves/bank credit. The direct interest rate channel is the strongest channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism (MPTM),...