The global financial crisis highlighted that the financial system can be most vulnerable when it seems most stable. This paper models non-linear dynamics in banking. Small shocks can lead from an equilibrium with few bank defaults straight to a full freeze. The mechanism is based on...

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to...

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

We explore the stability properties of interest rate rules granting an explicit response to stock prices in a New-Keynesian DSGE model populated by Blanchard-Yaari non-Ricardian households. The constant turnover between long-time stock holders and asset-poor newcomers generates a financial...

Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence...

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights Turkey’s economic revival and policies to entrench macroeconomic stability. Turkey has experienced an impressive economic revival in recent years. Exports have continued to gain market shares, as the effects of an...

Portugal's economy faced severe crisis during the global economic and financial crisis. In this context, Portugal's authorities have put forward an economically well-balanced program that will focus on structural reforms to boost growth and employment, ensure balanced fiscal sustainability,...

Grenada quickly recovered from the devastating effects of Hurricane Ivan. Executive Directors welcomed the economic reform program aimed to promote economic growth, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, reduce vulnerabilities, and alleviate poverty. They emphasized the need to strengthen the...

This paper discusses key findings of the 2006 Regional Discussions on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. Fiscal revenues have improved, but there has been only a modest improvement in the fiscal and debt positions. Tax revenues have strengthened with the uptick in economic activity,...