This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global...

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to...

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected...

This paper discusses fiscal surveillance criteria for the countries of the Central African Monetary and Economic Union (CEMAC), most of which depend heavily on oil exports. At present, the CEMAC's macroeconomic surveillance exercise sets as fiscal target a floor on the basic budgetary balance....

This paper attempts to offer specific inputs to the debate on local content promotion in the oil industry, using the specific case of São Tomé and Príncipe as point of reference. Our approach emphasizes inter-sectoral linkages and institutional pre-conditions for local content promotion....

The 2007 Article IV Consultation on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) examines the near- and medium-term outlook, inflation, and fiscal policy. The rapid expansion is supported by an outward-oriented development strategy and sustained high oil prices. Reforms are under way to strengthen the...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

Qatar has weathered the global economic crisis well. Enhancement of liquefied natural gas capacity (LNG), government support to the banking system, and increase in public spending sustain the high growth rates. There is a need to monitor aggregate demand to prevent the resurgence of inflation...

The completion of the Second Review Under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility Arrangement was delayed to address important governance and transparency concerns. Macroeconomic performance was strong in the year 2005. Policy discussions focused on improving macroeconomic management against the...