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Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?
Reichsfeld, David A; Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369445
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Forecasting Commodity Prices; Futures Versus Judgment
Husain, Aasim M.; Bowman, Chakriya - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599405
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Emerging Market Spread Compression; Is it Real or is it Liquidity?
Kodres, Laura E.; Hartelius, Kristian; Kashiwase, Kenichiro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Despite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global liquidity. The paper models spreads and attempts to empirically distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605159
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France; 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Franc...
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
France’s near–term economic outlook is moderately positive, but clouded by risks from the global environment. The government’s reformist intentions provide an historic opportunity to place France onto a sustained higher growth path with greater opportunities for all....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244757
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People’s Republic China; Detailed Assessment Report: CPSS-IOSCO Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2012
A detailed assessment report on the observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems-International Organization of Securities Commissions recommendations for China’s Securities Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties is presented. The bond market comprises the interbank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244858
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United States; 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that problems in the housing and financial markets over the past year have combined to slow the United States’ economy substantially. As the residential investment downturn accelerated and national indices of housing prices started falling,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245049
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Uruguay; Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Requests for Modification, Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Extension of Repurchase Exp...
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2006
Uruguay’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Modification, Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are discussed. Growth remains robust, inflation is subdued, and the external position continues to strengthen, with buoyant exports and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245054
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South Africa; Detailed Assessment of Implementation on IOSCO Principles-Securities Markets
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
South Africa has made substantial progress in addressing the recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program and is continuing to build upon these accomplishments. The Financial Services Board and Department of Trade and Industry both are organizations with the legal authority to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245358
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Singapore; Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on the following topics: Banking Supervision, Insurance Regulation, Sec...
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2004
Singapore’s financial sector, which is dominated by the banking sector, remains robust despite a series of economic downturns and substantial asset price declines. Economic developments in the past few years have highlighted Singapore’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005252855
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Use of Participatory Notes in Indian Equity Markets and Recent Regulatory Changes
Singh, Manmohan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
This paper focuses on the use of participatory notes (PNs) by foreign investors, as a conduit for portfolio flows into Indian equity markets for more than a decade. The broadening of India's foreign investor base, in recent years, has a bias towards hedge funds/unregistered foreign investors who...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264002