Relative GDP shares are frequently used as weights in aggregations. In order to ensure that these weights reflect countries’ shares in real output, GDP data in national currencies should be converted into a common numeraire currency at purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. A review of the...

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The...

The prospects of expansionary monetary policies in the advanced countries for the foreseeable future have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that are, at least partly, driven by low interest rates in the financial centers. Historically, capital flow...

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI,...

We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing...

This Selected Issues paper examines competitiveness and the equilibrium real exchange rate for Ghana. It estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana to establish to what extent real effective exchange rate (REER) movements have been driven by an adjustment to its equilibrium...

The two legs that have held up the forint in recent years—a strong “EU accession effect†and positive sentiment toward emerging markets—may no longer be strong enough to offset Hungary’s weak fundamentals. Fiscal consolidation efforts should be supported by...

Bolivia’s 2007 Article IV Consultation reports that reforms are needed to make the budget a more effective developmental and poverty-reducing tool. The fiscal position has shifted into a substantial surplus, and public debt has been substantially reduced. Financial sector stability has...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that effective economic management and an outward-oriented development strategy have contributed to placing Tunisia’s economic performance over the past decade among the best in the region. Real GDP growth accelerated from 4 percent in 2005 to...