growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise over time. After a … critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is … is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various …

-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including … the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good … general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the …

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does …