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Financial decisions of economic agents are based on volatility considerations. However, no aggregate indicators have … been used by policymakers and regulators to assess the market risk environment. This paper applies a market volatility … indicator to analyze the Israeli's transition toward inflation targeting. Unlike conventional measures of volatility, it shows a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264007
Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825649
This paper studies the role of an increase in foreign exchange reserves in reducing currency volatility for emerging … introduced in the regressions to account for other factors affecting exchange rate volatility (monetary and external indicators … exchange rate regime, since the regime can affect both the level of reserves and exchange rate volatility. The results provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825686
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By … using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The … the Czech koruna-Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312
This paper tests whether reserve portfolios respond to exchange rate changes with a portfolio rebalancing strategy, which requires the purchase of depreciating currencies and sale of appreciating ones. The paper finds empirical support for the strategy, in particular that dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768948
central banks should not be overly concerned with short-run volatility of their national exchange rates, given the self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599329
We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604790
explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are … euro. Spillovers of volatility across regional markets appear to have diminished over time, with the exception of the … Hungarian forint, which remains a source of volatility shocks to regional currencies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605079
correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It …. Moreover, implied volatilities generally anticipate the direction of volatility correctly, with a bias to overpredicting … volatility increases reflecting one-sided markets. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605254
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826235