The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...

We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and...

Bahrain's financial sector development strategy succeeded in building a leading regional banking center, which has become one of the main engines of growth and sources of employment. Although the simulations conducted in the paper suggest that the banking sector in Bahrain continues to occupy a...

This paper analyzes the stochastic inventory control problem when the demand distribution is not known. In contrast to previous Bayesian inventory models, this paper adopts a non-parametric Bayesian approach in which the firm’s prior information is characterized by a Dirichlet process prior....

How much convergence has been achieved between Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and the eurozone? We explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are closely correlated, pointing to convergence in the economic...

Using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, this paper studies the efficiency of the Japanese equity market by examining the statistical properties of the return and volatility of the Nikkei 225. It shows that both follow a long range dependence, which stands against the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)....

Recent changes to China's financial system, in particular ongoing interest rate liberalization, gradual movement toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, and rapid development of capital markets, have changed substantially the environment in which monetary policy operates. In light of these...

This paper reviews the Third Progress Report 2002/03 for Tanzania’s Poverty Reduction Strategy. The report highlights what the government did during the past year in terms of policy developments, an assessment of the achievements and challenges, including the monitoring system. There are...

This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) on Djibouti explains past strategies and the PRSP formulation process. Djibouti suffers from a gross lack of reliable health statistics. Available information gives only a fragmented picture of the reality, but globally, it reveals a difficult health...

This paper reviews findings of the Detailed Assessment of Italy’s Compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision. The Italian banking system seems to exhibit a high degree of resilience to possible macroeconomic shocks, as supported by the evolution of some...