Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in … recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap …

We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure … relationship between clarity and market volatility prior to and during the early stage of the global financial crisis. As the …

communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market … volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers … emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility. …

diversified their economies. Third, to analyze the relationship between diversification, growth, and volatility. …

volatility and (the lack of) persistence implies that when one excludes volatile items relevant information is likely to be … volatility and persistence. The evidence shows that such measures far outperform those based on either volatility or persistence …

at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk … much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. …

emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital …

This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European … sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of … area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany …