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globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825794
This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor … globalization period (1986-2003). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains a larger fraction of output …, consumption, and investment volatility in the globalization period than in the BW period. These findings suggest that the degree …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825664
This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264125
This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654155
Should policymakers still be concerned about economic growth in trading partners? Have developing and emerging market countries decoupled from the US enough to grow despite significant recession in the US? Using VAR models, this paper addresses these questions for Nigeria in the context of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559275
This paper investigates Central America's external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519508
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599680
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839326
declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142006
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242185