This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart...

This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors...

This paper investigates financial frictions in US postwar data to understand the interaction between the real business cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector Autoregression and New Keynesian models demonstrating how financial shocks can...

This paper assesses the implications of the use of oil revenue for public investment on growth and fiscal sustainability in Cameroon. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of such investment on growth and on the path of key fiscal indicators, such as...

This paper presents a technical note on Mexico’s Financial Sector Assessment Program update. The Mexican experience displays interesting characteristics that provide lessons for other countries that still need to design the decumulation phase of their newly established second pillars. The...

The note gives statistical data on Aruba with regard to indicators of tourism activity, components of GDP, real GDP, contributions to real GDP, growth, changes in consumer price index, and legal minimum wages. The statistical data of operations of the central government, operational budget of...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Zambian economy has performed well in recent years, with strong growth and modest inflation, and has high growth potential. The government has resolved to step up development by scaling up investment in infrastructure. The current fiscal...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns...