This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information...

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

The degree of an economy’s monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal...

This technical note on financing of the private sector for Mexico describes the evolution, composition, and determinants of financing to the nonfinancial private sector in Mexico between 2000 and 2005. Equity issuance has not played an important role in financing the private sector in Mexico...

India’s financial system compares favorably internationally, but rising credit risk and liquidity pressures are putting it under strain. The staff report for India’s 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses economic developments and policies. The authorities have already taken...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation reports on Ghana’s recent economic and policy development. Public Financial Management (PFM) has been strengthened through improvements in fiscal reporting and deployment of the new computerized payroll management system. Executive Directors commended the...

The Indonesian economy proved resilient during the global financial crisis, and has since continued to grow at a robust rate. Increases in both foreign and domestic investment are expected to offset lower growth contributions from net exports as import demand rises. A key risk is deterioration...

France’s near–term economic outlook is moderately positive, but clouded by risks from the global environment. The government’s reformist intentions provide an historic opportunity to place France onto a sustained higher growth path with greater opportunities for all....