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Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Goodhart, C. A. E.; Basurto, Miguel A. Segoviano; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264113
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Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies
Nkusu, Mwanza - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203534
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Macrofinancial Linkages of the Strategic Asset Allocation of Commodity-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
This paper analyses the links between the investment strategies of a commodity-based SWF and the macroeconomic framework of the owner country. We examine some basic macrofinancial linkages of an SWF's strategic asset allocation (SAA) strategies with regard to the government budget, monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561093
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Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate
Souto, Marcos; Barnhill, Theodore M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825598
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A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt From the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager
Papaioannou, Michael G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825661
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Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk; Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications
Santos, Andre; Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
Currency mismatches in corporate balance sheets have been singled out as an important factor underlying the severity of recent financial crises. We propose several structural models for measuring default risk for firms with currency mismatches in their asset/liability structure. The proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826571
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International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress
Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye; Gray, Dale F.; Tamirisa, Natalia T.; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
December 2008. The results point to two-way causality between bank and corporate distress and to significant global … macroeconomic and financial spillovers from either type of distress when it originates in a systemic economy. Corporate distress in … advanced economies has a larger impact on economic growth in emerging economies than bank distress in advanced economies has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542980
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Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling
Gasha, Jose Giancarlo; Santos, Andre; Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
As is well known, most models of credit risk have failed to measure the credit risks in the context of the global financial crisis. In this context, financial industry representatives, regulators and academics worldwide have given new impetus to efforts to improve credit risk modeling for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528651
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Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems
Oka, Chikako - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605345
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Japan; Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Credit Intermediation
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2012
This paper is an analysis of Japan’s credit channel. The economic condition has no hindrance, but credit demand showed an inert performance. The state’s policies have helped the flow of finance and prevent bankruptcy, but several other aspects act as an impediment to credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244991