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Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
Rebucci, Alessandro; Ciccarelli, Matteo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948
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Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model
Chen, Huigang; Mirestean, Alin; Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
regressors in the context of model uncertainty. We illustrate the use of LIBMA in an application to the estimation of a dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870
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Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Timmermann, Allan; Catão, Luis; Aiolfi, Marco - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264082
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Cross-Country Consumption Risk Sharing, a Long-Run Perspective
Qiao, Zhaogang - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market (EM) countries. This is in contrast to the existing literature on consumption risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470399
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Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan
Mongardini, Joannes; Saadi-Sedik, Tahsin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605176
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On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797
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Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance; Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with them?
Medina, Leandro; Caceres, Carlos; Corbacho, Ana - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727801
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Vietnam; Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
Maliszewski, Wojciech - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560446
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Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693
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Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826355