Showing 1 - 10 of 1,352
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
This paper studies overborrowing, financial crises and macro-prudential policy in an equilibrium model of business cycles and asset prices with collateral constraints. Agents in a decentralized competitive equilibrium do not internalize the negative effects of asset fire-sales on the value of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839333
denominated debt subject to a risk premium above and beyond international interest rates. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826005
This paper studies the role of an increase in foreign exchange reserves in reducing currency volatility for emerging … introduced in the regressions to account for other factors affecting exchange rate volatility (monetary and external indicators … exchange rate regime, since the regime can affect both the level of reserves and exchange rate volatility. The results provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825686
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By … using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The … estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes but also that some of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312
we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604790
The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825618
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232
contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not … require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from … structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948
This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824823