This Selected Issues paper describes the recent economic developments in The Gambia. The paper highlights that the economic performance of The Gambia deteriorated sharply in 2002, as sparse rainfall led to a decline of one-third in agricultural output. Real GDP shrank by 3 percent. However,...

This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange...

We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking...

Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated with inflation differentials and productivity differentials, indicating that the...

This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor methodology, which...

Malta has advanced toward accession to the European Union (EU), and its progress in international competition and fiscal deficit reduction has contributed to rapid growth and enhanced the economy's resilience to economic shocks. Executive Directors stressed the need for fiscal consolidation,...

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2001, the South African economy felt the impact of a slowdown in global economic activity, which interrupted the modest upturn that started late in 1998. Driven mainly by a contraction in overseas demand that lowered export prices and volumes,...

Many countries have moved towards more flexible exchange rate regimes over the last decade to take advantage of greater monetary policy autonomy and flexibility in responding to external shocks. Some reluctance to let go of pegged exchange rates persists, however, despite the benefits of...