Showing 1 - 10 of 156
The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a … forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769228
This paper examines the case for internationally coordinated indirect taxes on aviation (as a source of general revenue-not (necessarily) as a source of development finance). The case for such taxes is strong: the tax burden on international aviation is currently limited, yet it contributes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769201
This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244775
Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245592
Currency option implied volatility predicts more efficiently exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna, reflecting differences in the frequency of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. A GARCH model shows a positive impact of the introduction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248136
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248142
Unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities are often used as surrogates for price indices in the measurement of inflation transmission, terms of trade (effects), and to deflate import and export value series to derive volume series. Their widespread use is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248193
Based on a survey that we designed and that covers a stratified random sample of 12,400 firms in 120 cities in China with firm-level accounting information for 2002-2004, this paper examines the presence of systematic distortions in capital allocation that result in uneven marginal returns to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248196
the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248203
This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248271