This paper characterizes the term structure of Treasury bond yields for Brazil, and estimates a Nelson-Siegel Model to reproduce its stylized facts for the period 2004-2010. For this purpose, this paper uses a software developed by Fund staff. In addition, the paper estimates two versions of the...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

Various indicators place Cyprus’s banking system soundness ahead of emerging countries but behind advanced economies. This report discusses financial sector stability in Cyprus, using a combination of accounting-based and market-based indicators, and stress tests. Cypriot commercial banks...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Hong Kong Special Administrative Region’s economy was severely affected by the global financial crisis. The recovery is now under way, fueled by growth on the Mainland, supportive policies, and accommodative monetary conditions imported...

The Executive Board of the IMF has concluded the consultation discussions with the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hong Kong SAR has rebounded from the global financial crisis, and growth should be at 5¾ percent this year. Unemployment has fallen to low levels, and real incomes...

This paper surveys the foreign exchange markets, money and secondary government security markets, and stock exchanges in 107 smaller economy countries. The underdevelopment of these markets impedes risk transfer, monetary policy, corporate financing, and the capacity to absorb capital inflows....

The paper has three objectives. After a general introduction to some of the concepts and basic techniques of stress testing, the paper gives an overview of some of the conceptual issues involved in evaluating risks at the aggregated level of financial systems. Second, this study provides a basic...

The paper examines the scope for cross-border spillovers among major EU banks using information contained in the stock prices and financial statements of these banks. The results suggest that spillovers within domestic banking systems generally remain more likely, but the number of significant...

We analyze the capital controls imposed in Malaysia in September 1998. In macroeconomic terms, these controls neither yielded major benefits nor were costly. At the same time, the stock market interpreted the capital controls (and associated events) as favoring firms with stronger political...

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study confirms that there is evidence that developments in some sectoral...