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Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies
Guzman, Juan Pablo Medina; Soto, Claudio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the … credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the …-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790403
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The ECB'S Money Pillar; An Assessment
Jaeger, Albert - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and unobserved-components analysis suggests that money can play a useful role in gauging and constraining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264049
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Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars
Österholm, Pär; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264231
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Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy; Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825754
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Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions; A Comparative Examination
Ross, Kevin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002
Many surveys of the ECB's monetary framework emphasize the inability of financial markets to correctly predict monetary policy decisions. At the same time, these surveys of financial market participants have given relatively high marks to the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826296
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The ECB'S Inflation Objective
Kieler, Mads - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
The ECB's objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric, and excessively stringent. This paper attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the trade-offs for the euro area and finds that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768947
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Euro Area Monetary Policy in Uncharted Waters
Stavrev, Emil; Harjes, Thomas; Cihák, Martin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
We analyze the European Central Bank's (ECB's) response to the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that even during the crisis, the core part of ECB's monetary policy transmission-from policy rates to market rates-has continued to operate, but at a decreased efficiency. We also find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528698
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The ECB and Euro-Area Enlargement
Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002
The likely enlargement of euro-area membership will radically change the environment under which monetary policy will be made in the euro area. Within less than a decade, the number of member countries in the euro area could more than double, with the vast majority of accession countries being...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599234
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The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited
Berger, Helge; Harjes, Thomas; Stavrev, Emil - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599686
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Writing Clearly; ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication
Cihák, Martin; Smídková, Katerina; Bulir, Ales - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605366