Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that...

This paper analyses the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries. An analysis of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse effects on tax revenues and investment. It also leads to...

This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic...

This Selected Issues paper focuses on constructing a high-frequency economic growth indicator for Suriname. Most economic data for Suriname are available only with a substantial time lag and on a low-frequency basis, impeding such analyses. This paper presents a simple econometric model that...

In this paper, the structure of Colombia’s financial sector is analyzed and various risks of the financial sector are studied. Supervision of the financial system can be performed by supervisory architecture, banking supervision, various securities, and insurance policies. Systemic...

This staff report on Colombia’s arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line highlights economic policies and development. Colombia’s economic performance in recent years has been very strong, underpinned by a very strong institutional framework and prudent macroeconomic management....