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Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are … model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate … that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959475
This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country … growing discontent with inflation, however, has compelled policymakers to focus on this issue, bringing it to the forefront of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244775
The report gives details of the economic analysis for the implementation of Chile's inflation targeting framework. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244929
External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248323
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263685
analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts …. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263972
This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264080
issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693
central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825754