This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of the erosion of trade preferences, with a focus on the export of Caribbean bananas to Europe. Estimates are made of the magnitude of implicit assistance provided over a period of three decades to eastern Caribbean countries through banana trade...

The empirical study shows that the equilibrium real exchange rate in Mauritius has been affected by the terms of trade, as well as by other fundamental determinants. It assesses the challenges posed to Mauritius’s trade performance by the expiration of the preferential trade arrangements....

The pace of trade reforms waned from the mid-2000s as protectionist sentiment began to increase. With the onset of the global financial crisis, reform progress not only halted but began to reverse. As we show in this note, new trade restrictions have had—in the limited products they...

This paper studies the behavior of China’s foreign trade in the 1980s. Chinese customs data are used to construct, for the first time, quarterly unit value and volume series that are then used to estimate foreign trade income and price elasticities. The estimated export supply price...

Using a panel of firm-level data, this paper examines the effects of India's trade reforms in the early 1990s on firm productivity in the manufacturing sector, focusing on the interaction between this policy shock and firm and environment characteristics. The rapid and comprehensive tariff...

This paper analyzes the effects of trade openness on budget balances by distinguishing the effects of natural openness from those of trade-policy induced openness. Using the GMMsystem estimator, the econometric analysis focuses on 66 developing countries during 1974-98. The results show that...

Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a...

In this paper we estimate gravity models to see whether trade volumes of countries in the MENA region are significantly lower than what would be expected given their economic, cultural and geographical characteristics. Our empirical results show that the variables used in standard gravity models...

This paper focuses on euro area policies. The monetary policy stance remains appropriate for now. Fiscal policies are falling well short of consolidation requirements, and the area remains insufficiently prepared for the looming demographic shock. Past fiscal policy failures, notably...

Based on a version of the IMF’s new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real...