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Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth

Aiyar, Shekhar; Tchakarov, Ivan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248323

Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

Rebucci, Alessandro; Ciccarelli, Matteo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948

A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty

Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264140

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model

Chen, Huigang; Mirestean, Alin; Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

regressors in the context of model uncertainty. We illustrate the use of LIBMA in an application to the estimation of a dynamic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870

On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797

Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance; Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with them?

Medina, Leandro; Caceres, Carlos; Corbacho, Ana - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010

In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727801

Vietnam; Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

Maliszewski, Wojciech - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560446

Exchange Rate Regime Transitions

Masson, Paul R. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825618

Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693

Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds

Matovu, John - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825819