We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that...

Kuwait’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the economic and financial positions are projected to remain strong mainly on the expectation that world oil prices will decline only gradually. Reflecting sharply higher oil prices and production, economic conditions improved...

The staff report on Euro Area Policies highlights cyclical growth developments and risks. The area’s real GDP growth has picked up, responding to strong foreign demand and relaxed financial conditions. The final domestic demand growth remains subdued, and the area lags global growth by a...

This paper summarizes the macroeconomic performance of the transition economies. We first review the initial conditions confronting these economies, the reform strategy that was proposed, and the associated controversies that arose a decade ago. We then account for the widely different outcomes,...

Congo's vital dependence on trade for development stands in contradiction with its trade policy. As a member of the CEMAC, Congo's tariff scheme at least formally is guided by CEMAC's 1994 trade regime agreement. This paper shows CEMAC's customs code is restrictive relative to that of comparable...

The paper combines various methodologies to assessing the level of the exchange rate in Botswana, explicitly taking into account the implications of its dependency on diamond exports. Real exchange rate estimation indicates that, after a period of overvaluation, Botswana's real effective...

While public financial institutions (such as public development banks) are commonly associated with developing countries, in fact they are prevalent in the developed world as well. We study a sample of public financial institutions in industrialized countries and identify dominant trends in...

The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second...

As in other sectors, competition in finance matters for allocative, productive and dynamic efficiency. Theory suggests, however, that unfettered competition is not first best given the special features of finance. I review these analytics and describe how to assess the degree of competition in...

This paper studies the potential for the export sector to play a more important role in promoting growth in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) through deeper intra-regional and global trade integration. CAPDR countries have enacted many free trade agreements and other...