We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

This paper investigates the generalized parametric measurement methods of aggregate operational risk in compliance with the regulatory capital standards for operational risk in the New Basel Capital Accord ("Basel II"). Operational risk is commonly defined as the risk of loss resulting from...

This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market (EM) countries. This is in contrast to the existing literature on consumption risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business...

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides an assessment of Italy’s macroeconomic statistics against the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment...

Dutch macroeconomic statistics are generally in accordance with internationally accepted standards and guidelines on concepts and definitions, scope, classification and sectorization, and basis for recording. They are also available with periodicity and timeliness that always meet, and sometimes...

The data quality assessment shows that Kazakhstan is in observance of the Special Data Dissemination Standard, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. Executive Directors have suggested a set of recommendations that...

The quality of the macroeconomic statistics for Malta has improved significantly in recent years, particularly as a result of the legal and institutional restructuring of the National Statistics Office (NSO). These changes were made in an effort to respond more effectively to the needs of users...