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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption; Weathering Uncharted Waters
Székely, István P.; Kóbor, Ãdám - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By … using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The … estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes but also that some of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312
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Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates
Leon, H. L.; Najarian, Serineh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
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Time-Varying Thresholds; An Application to Purchasing Power Parity
Leon, H. L.; Najarian, Serineh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper introduces a time-varying threshold autoregressive model (TVTAR), which is used to examine the persistence of deviations from PPP. We find support for the stationary TVTAR against the unit root hypothesis; however, for some developing countries, we do not reject the TVTAR with a unit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604859
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On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797
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The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?
Celasun, Oya; Bella, Gabriel Di; Mahedy, Tim; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790239
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Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum
Sahay, Ratna; Arora, Vivek B.; Arvanitis, Athanasios V; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers … emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959484
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Jamaica; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245592
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Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia; A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
Saxena, Sweta Chaman; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248271
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The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
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Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Goodhart, C. A. E.; Basurto, Miguel A. Segoviano; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264113