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Two Sides of the Same Coin? Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China
Lee, Il Houng; Syed, Murtaza H.; Wang, Xin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper uses the Shapley Value decomposition technique to assess the factors behind the rise of inequality in China …. It finds that, in many ways, inequality may have been an inevitable by-product of China’s investment and export …. Across China’s provinces, divergences in per capita incomes are driven by the relative level of capital-intensity, public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790266
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What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Andrle, Michal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790260
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System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties
Andrle, Michal; Benes, Jaromir - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790311
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Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact
Sanjani, Marzie Taheri - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
This paper investigates financial frictions in US postwar data to understand the interaction between the real business cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector Autoregression and New Keynesian models demonstrating how financial shocks can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011144607
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Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union; TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages
Lama, Ruy; Rabanal, Pau - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242323
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Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?
Alp, Harun; Elekdag, Selim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008–2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) let the exchange rate depreciate and cut interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142014
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Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?
Lee, Il Houng; Syed, Murtaza H.; Xueyan, Liu - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness of China’s current investment levels. It finds that China’s capital-to-output ratio is within the range of other emerging markets, but its economic growth rates stand out, partly due to a surge in investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142176
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Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model
Anderson, Derek; Hunt, Ben; Kortelainen, Mika; Kumhof, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242434
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Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy
Grigoli, Francesco; Herman, Alexander; Swiston, Andrew; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163120
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Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy
Han, Fei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic model for a small open and partially dollarized economy is developed and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142105