International debt contracts can incorporate—at least implicitly—contingencies governing debt reduction. This paper examines a series of debt contracts that allow for the possibility of rescheduling, forgiveness, and rescheduling with forgiveness. The contract with both rescheduling and...

Although a centerpiece of the reform process in Central and Eastern Europe, large-scale privatization cannot be undertaken all at once and policymakers inevitably face the choice of privatizing some sectors before others. This paper analyzes the allocative efficiency implications of alternate...

This paper highlights the importance of the role of the domestic tax system in determining the economic consequences of an external debt overhang. A simple taxation scheme is specified and it is shown that a country can be on the “wrong side” of its debt Laffer curve only if it is on the...

This paper uses provincial time series data from China to empirically investigate two propositions relating to economic development: (i) that economic takeoff is associated with technological transfer through foreign direct investment (FDI); and (ii) that takeoff is accompanied, at least in the...

The issue of the appropriate exchange rate regime for individual countries has been perennially lively, and the role played by international capital flows and domestic financial systems in determining the performance of these regimes has gained prominence in the policy debate. Using recent...

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis...

This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes...

This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear...

The development of a competitive private sector is widely viewed as a central element in the economic transformation of central and eastern Europe. Despite significant reforms in these economies, however, state enterprises continue to produce a substantial share of output. This paper considers...

This paper shows that concerted debt reduction may be welfare-improving even when the investment disincentive effect of a debt overhang is not large enough to place the debtor country on the wrong side of the debt Laffer curve. Whether the appropriate relief scheme involves debt reduction or new...