KEY ISSUES The economy has rebounded strongly and prospects are promising. Headwinds that previously held back the economy—relating notably to credit conditions and confidence—have eased. Nonetheless, sustaining strong growth will depend on a recovery in productivity growth and...

It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb-Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced-budget rule. This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real...

This staff report on United Kingdom’s (UK) 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic policies and development. The UK economy grew by about ¼ percent in 2012. Net trade reduced growth by 0.6 percentage points of GDP, the biggest drag since 2005, and well above staff projections....

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm...

We revisit the question of the quantitative benefits of WTO trade agreements in a setup that is non-standard from the traditional trade policy point of view. We show that in a New Keynesian model, unilateral trade liberalization reduces welfare due to terms-of-trade deterioration, creating an...

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post...

This paper discusses Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of a Performance Criterion. Financial sector indicators through end-March 2013 suggest that the banking system remains profitable and adequately capitalized at...

The short-term objectives are being met, but medium-term targets and sustainability have to be worked on. The impressive fiscal adjustment evident since the crisis erupted is continuing. The Executive Directors commend the Greek government’s determination to focus on overdue spending...

This paper discusses Ireland’s Fiscal Transparency Assessment. The Irish government has ambitious plans to improve further the timeliness, quality, and comprehensiveness of its budgets, statistics, and accounts. Ireland has the capacity and information to bring its fiscal transparency...