Over the past year, euro area sovereign spreads have exhibited an unprecedented degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from...

The paper analyzes and quantifies the importance of sovereign risk in determining corporate default premia (yield spreads). It also investigates the extent to which the practice by rating agencies and banks of not rating companies higher than their sovereign ("country or sovereign ceiling") is...

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

Unconventional monetary policy is often assumed to benefit banks. However, we find little supporting evidence. Rather, we find some evidence for heightened medium-term risks. First, in an event study using a novel instrument for monetary policy surprises, we do not detect clear effects of...

Exchange rate flexibility has facilitated an impressively fast insertion of the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty into the global currency market. However, exchange rate volatility patterns differ: Lower volatility is observed for the koruna against the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, while...

This Selected Issues paper on Mexico presents econometric investigation of the cyclical determinants of remittances to Mexico. The aggregate U.S. business cycle is not necessarily relevant for remittances. Remittances to Mexico do show a significant relationship with employment conditions in...

This paper discusses the Arrangement for Mexico Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The recent upward trend in output in Mexico is expected to continue, leading to projected growth of 4 percent for 2010. Financial inflows are projected to gradually...

This 2012 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economy of Poland fared well throughout the crisis. The growth was robust and well balanced in 2011. The banking sector remained profitable and well capitalized. Declining provisioning boosted profitability and the average capital adequacy...