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Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693
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Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates
Leon, H. L.; Najarian, Serineh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
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Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
Abiad, Abdul - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232
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Competition and Firm Productivity; Evidence From Firm-Level Data
Schiffbauer, Marc; Ospina, Sandra - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of competition on firm productivity. Using firm-level observations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey database, we find a positive and robust causal relationship between our proxies for competition and our measures of productivity. We also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470387
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Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
Aiyar, Shekhar; Tchakarov, Ivan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248323
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Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
Rebucci, Alessandro; Ciccarelli, Matteo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948
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A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty
Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264140
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Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model
Chen, Huigang; Mirestean, Alin; Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
regressors in the context of model uncertainty. We illustrate the use of LIBMA in an application to the estimation of a dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870
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On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797
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Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance; Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with them?
Medina, Leandro; Caceres, Carlos; Corbacho, Ana - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727801