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Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies
Nkusu, Mwanza - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203534
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Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya
Cevik, Serhan; Rahmati, Mohammad - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper investigates the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Libya during the period 1970–2010. The empirical results vary with estimation methodology and model specification, but indicate the lack of long-run relationship between financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790327
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International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress
Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye; Gray, Dale F.; Tamirisa, Natalia T.; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The paper evaluates how increases in banks’ and nonfinancial corporates’ default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the period from January 1996 to December 2008. The results point to two-way...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542980
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Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Goodhart, C. A. E.; Basurto, Miguel A. Segoviano; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264113
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International R and D Spillovers and Institutions
Hoffmaister, Alexander W.; Coe, David T.; Helpman, Elhanan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
panel cointegration estimation techniques to an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768791
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Growth and Productivity in Papua New Guinea
Faal, Ebrima - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768923
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Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates
Leon, H. L.; Najarian, Serineh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
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Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies
Mauro, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies. Moreover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769095
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Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
Abiad, Abdul - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232
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The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area
Lombardi, Marco; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Fornari, Fabio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area … include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an … shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540921