"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

"Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored,...

Despite some financial turbulence, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilientduring the first half of 2018. The growth outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, as China's economicexpansion...

Conditions in the region and the rest of the world have changed dramatically since the April 2020 Regional Economic Update (World Bank 2020a). In addition to still unfolding unprecedented health crisis, the world is now experiencing the deepest global recession since the Second World War (World...

Growth in developing East Asia in the first half of 2011 remained strong, but continued to moderate, mainly due to weakening external demand. Global growth was also affected by supply shocks from geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, supply chain disruptions following the earthquake and...

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in East Asia has been moderating after a sharp rebound from the global crisis. The slowdown in growth since mid-2010, even though smaller than earlier projected, has occurred despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in high-income economies and only...

East Asia has recovered from the economic and financial crisis. Largely thanks to China, the region's output, exports and employment have mostly returned to the levels before the crisis. Leading the global economy, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in developing East Asia is poised to...

Output has recovered to above pre-crisis levels throughout developing East Asia and, in some countries, is expanding at near pre-crisis rates. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to rise 8.9 percent in the region in 2010, up from 7.3 percent in 2009 and in line with the average growth...