"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

"Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored,...

KEY ISSUES Context. After several postponements, the July legislative elections—which were, peacefully conducted—gave an absolute majority to the incumbent party. The new government has thus a strong mandate to implement growth-promoting policies and meet the public’s expectations of...

KEY ISSUES Setting: Namibia’s positive growth record over the years has raised overall incomes and led to positive economic outcomes. However, growth has not translated into sufficient job creation contributing to persistently high unemployment and income inequality. Outlook and risks: Real...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic activity continued to grow at a brisk pace in 2013. Growth projections have been revised slightly downwards to 6.8 percent in 2013 and 2014, based on lower gold and cotton prices that are leading to somewhat lower output, and the impact of the high base of agricultural...

KEY ISSUES Context and outlook. Mozambique’s macroeconomic outlook remains favorable and the PSI-supported program is broadly on track. All assessment criteria were met and most indicative targets, but there was some slippage on structural reforms. Economic growth is robust and inflation...

KEY ISSUES Context. Economic growth and macroeconomic stability improved in 2013. A robust rise in tourism earnings supported growth, as well as a reduction in the current account deficit as a share of GDP. The exchange rate has strengthened slightly, at the same time as the central bank...

Context: Mali is emerging from the worst security and political crisis in its recent history. Progress in political normalization to date has been encouraging: a successful presidential election, formation of the new government and the legislative elections have demonstrated Mali’s commitment...

KEY ISSUES Context. GDP growth is on track to reach 4 percent in 2013 and is projected to increase to 4.6 percent in 2014. Inflation has been declining, following a good harvest, and should stay below 1 percent in 2013 and below 2 percent in 2014. The cabinet was reshuffled in early September....

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The coalition government that came into office on December 12, 2012, remains fully committed to the pursuit of sound policies that are helping to consolidate macroeconomic stability, despite a challenging external environment and more uncertain oil prospects. Program...