"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

"Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored,...

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other...

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other...

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to...

Lebanon faces serious challenges from a volatile security environment and spillovers from the ongoing Syrian conflict which pose serious risks to an already fragile internal political situation. Security incidents have become increasingly more common and the volatile security environment is...

A new domestic political stalemate has developed while spillovers from the Syrian conflict further exacerbated. A mid-year lull in the security situation gave a temporary boost to consumer and investor sentiment. Lebanon’s current account deficit remains elevated, albeit lower than during the...

Malaysia is emerging from one of the worst export slumps in its economic history as manufacturing and exports have started growing again. With East Asia leading the recovery and advanced economies showing progressive improvement, the Malaysian economy is projected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2010,...