"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

"Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored,...

After contracting 4.1 percent in 2020, economic activity in Brazil increased substantially in 2021. Vaccination has accelerated, and the adult population is likely to be covered in late 2021. A sluggish labor market rebound, coupled with high unemployment and low participation rates will likely...

The aim of the Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) is to foster better informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi needs to address in order to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The MEM has two parts: Part 1 presents a review of...

Amid challenging global economic conditions and a substantial deterioration of its terms-of-trade, Indonesia’s economic growth decelerated to 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2019, from 5.1 percent in Q2. Domestic drivers of growth slowed. Fixed investment growth weakened further in Q3...

In 2018, Indonesia’s coordinated and prudent macroeconomic policy framework underpinned steadyeconomic growth, amid global volatility and several natural disasters. Real GDP growth strengthened to 5.2 percent yoy in 2018 from 5.1 percent in 2017. Growth decelerated only slightly in Q1 2019, to...

After a challenging 10 months of capital outflows, currency depreciation, higher government bond yields and mounting pressures from fuel prices, November brought respite to Indonesia: global oil prices fell, and capital flows returned, leading to currency appreciation and lower bond yields....