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Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence

Coibion, Olivier - 2013

The persistence of U.S. unemployment has risen with each of the last three recessions, raising the specter that future … shocks do not systematically lead to more persistent unemployment than monetary policy shocks, so these cannot explain the … rising persistence of unemployment. Second, monetary and fiscal policies can account for only part of the evolving …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459062

The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

McClure, Ethan M. L.; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

non-managers' expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit … similar average inflation and unemployment expectations as well as similar levels of disagreement and sensitivity to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191080

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis : A Preliminary View

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 6th, far more than jobs lost over the entire … rise in the unemployment rate over the corresponding period to be surprisingly small, only about 2 percentage points. Third …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481974

Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2013

retirement spells has been steadily increasing. We estimate the response of retirement timing to variations in unemployment rate …, inflation and housing prices. Flows into both full and partial retirement increase significantly when the unemployment rate … rises. Workers around normal retirement age are especially sensitive to variations in the unemployment rate. Workers who are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459024

Culture, Institutions and the Wealth of Nations

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2010

We construct an endogenous growth model that includes a cultural variable along the dimension of individualism-collectivism. The model predicts that more individualism leads to more innovation because of the social rewards associated with innovation in an individualist culture. This cultural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462288

Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

Auerbach, Alan J. - 2012

In this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of OECD countries. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460082

Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession

Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794559

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets

Auerbach, Alan J. - 2020

Credit markets typically freeze in recessions: access to credit declines and the cost of credit increases. A conventional policy response is to rely on monetary tools to saturate financial markets with liquidity. Given limited space for monetary policy in the current economic conditions, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479179

Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy

Auerbach, Alan J. - 2010

A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462346

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496179