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Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s

Staiger, Douglas - 2001

inflation, strong real wage growth, and low rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy during the late 1990s. Many of these … univariate trends in the unemployment rate and in the rate of productivity growth, these coefficients are stable. This suggests … explanations of movements of wages, prices and unemployment over the 1990s, and indeed over the past forty years, must focus on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470404

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

Staiger, Douglas - 1996

This paper investigates the precision of conventional and unconventional estimates of the natural rate of unemployment … series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473382

An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics

Müller, Ulrich K. - 2019

We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480537

The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes

Metcalf, Gilbert E. - 2020

Policy makers often express concern about the impact of carbon taxes on employment and GDP. Focusing on European countries that have implemented carbon taxes over the past 30 years, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of these taxes on GDP and employment growth rates for various specifications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481343

The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP

Feldstein, Martin - 1993

This paper studies the possibility of using the broad monetary aggregate M2 to target the quarterly rate of growth of nominal GDP. Our findings indicate that the Federal Reserve could probably guide M2 in a way that reduces not only the long-term average rate of inflation but also the variance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474656

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

Stock, James H. - 2019

We investigate the flattening Phillips relation by making two departures from standard specifications. First, we measure slack using real activity variables that are bandpass filtered or year-over-year changes in activity (these are similar), instead of gaps. Second, we study the components of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479936

U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak

Lewis, Daniel - 2020

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the response to the novel Coronavirus in the United States. The WEI shows a strong and sudden decline in economic activity starting in the week ending March 21, 2020. In the most...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481911

Modeling Inflation After the Crisis

Stock, James H. - 2010

(which we interpret as long-term expected inflation) reacts stably to a new gap measure, which we call the unemployment … the resilience, or anchoring, of trend inflation. Dynamic simulations (given the path of unemployment) match the paths of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462169

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

Stock, James H. - 2003

The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past forty years. Also, despite large increases in trade and openness, G7 business cycles have not become more synchronized. After documenting these twin facts, we interpret G7 output data using a structural VAR that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468838

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?

Stock, James H. - 2002

From 1960-1983, the standard deviation of annual growth rates in real GDP in the United States was 2.7%. From 1984-2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. This paper investigates this large drop in the cyclical volatility OF real economic.activity. The paper has two objectives. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469584