of key variables-potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate, need to solve a … them. Further, low-frequency movements of unemployment suggest a failure of the basic idea that departures from the …-frequency movements of unemployment. I conclude that monetary policymakers should not try to discern neutral values of real variables …

unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the "credit …

Recent work has demonstrated that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the …. Our model reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long … therefore greatly declines, leading to a large decrease in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment of the same magnitude …

employment growth rates across sectors (G) and the unemployment rate implies that shifts in demand from some sectors to others … are responsible for a substantial fraction of cyclical variation in unemployment. This paper demonstrates that, under … the unemployment rate. Two tests are developed which permit one to distinquish between a pure sectoral shift …

Recent critiques have demonstrated that existing attempts to account for the unemployment volatility puzzle of search … reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long-duration surplus … benefit from creating new matches greatly drops, leading to a large decline in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …