We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …

more severe. A higher unemployment rate around the time of retirement reduces Social Security income for those in the …

record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search … effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a … modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are …

Microeconomic evidence reveals that the incidence and duration of unemployment in the 1930s varied significantly within … the labor force. Long-term unemployment, which was especially high by historical standards, may have been exacerbated by …

in 2010 that is not matched by declines in happiness measures (positive affect). The fear of unemployment obtained from …

sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional … shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the … model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E …