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This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463441
We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people ….e., unemployment is 'involuntary'). We integrate our model of involuntary unemployment into the simple New Keynesian framework with no … capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment'. We then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462849
unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456944
Historical data and model simulations support the following conclusion. Inflation is low during stock market booms, so that an interest rate rule that is too narrowly focused on inflation destabilizes asset markets and the broader economy. Adjustments to the interest rate rule can remove this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462254
Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables--aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates--are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463527
The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469748
Much recent monetary policy analysis has featured stochastic simulations with small structural macroeconomic models that include: a spending vs. saving ( IS') sector; a price-adjustment sector; and an interest rate policy rule. The first two are frequently specified so as to reflect optimizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470498
Major changes have taken place in the U.S. economy within the past quarter century. Changes with implications that are at least potentially important for the effect of monetary policy on real economic activity include the elimination of Regulation Q interest ceilings and the development of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475757
More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456875
A large body of cross-country empirical evidence identifies monetary policy and trade integration as key determinants of business cycle co-movement. Partially consistent with this, many argue that the re-emergence of the gold standard allowed for the global transmission of a deflationary shock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461732