We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …

more severe. A higher unemployment rate around the time of retirement reduces Social Security income for those in the …

record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search … effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a … modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are …

Microeconomic evidence reveals that the incidence and duration of unemployment in the 1930s varied significantly within … the labor force. Long-term unemployment, which was especially high by historical standards, may have been exacerbated by …