Showing 1 - 10 of 11
This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed …-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data yields that the mixed frequency VAR substantially improves predictive accuracy upon a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268409
This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010555481
Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the … first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010612935
We investigate whether the KOF Barometer–a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute–can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008545878
-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008480878
-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051766
This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024962
indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011146147
regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196718
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011240546