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Mikosch, Heiner; Neuwirth, Stefan - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2015

standard VAR for different VAR specifications. Forecast errors for, e.g., GDP growth decrease by 30 to 60 percent for forecast … horizons up to six months and by around 20 percent for a forecast horizon of one year. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268409

A real time Evaluation of Employment Forecasts in Switzerland

Graff, Michael; Mannino, Massimo; Siegenthaler, Michael - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2012

We evaluate nowcasts and one- to four-quarter-ahead forecasts of Swiss full time equivalent jobs from 1998q1–2011q4, comparing forecasts of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with the outcome of the reference series. Both forecasts are biased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010587822

Explaining US Consumer Behavoir and Expectations with News Sentiment

Uhl, Matthias W. - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2010

We examine the information content of a newly created news sentiment index from over 300,000 articles from some of the most widely read newspapers in the US to explain changes in the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment from 1995 to 2009. Using ARMA-models, we show that consumer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008753462

Forecasting Chinese GDP Growth with Mixed Frequency Data: Which Indicators to Look at?

Mikosch, Heiner; Zhang, Ying - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2014

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … at the respective day of forecast. This procedure allows us to detect how useful a specific indicator is at a specific … forecast horizon relative to other indicators. Despite being published with an (additional) lag of one month the OECD leading …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011146147

Discretionary Fiscal Policy: The Case of Switzerland

Frick, Andres; Graff, Michael; Hartwig, Jochen; … - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2010

In the aftermath of the euro cash changeover consumers’ inflation perceptions rose substantially in the euro area countries while actual inflation figures remained almost unchanged. During that period media reporting on the potentially large inflationary effect of the euro introduction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008522403

Quantitative Analyse der Auswirkungen wirtschaftspolitischer Massnahmen auf die Einkommensverteilung und das «neue magische Viereck» in der Schweiz

Hartwig, Jochen - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2004

Macroeconometric policy simulation models allow for an analysis, and, above all, for a quantification of the effects different economic policies have on the various variables that represent the economy. Despite the seminal ‘Lucas critique’ levelled against them, these models are still widely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731511

The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries

Lein, Sarah M.; Maag, Thomas - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2008

This paper presents some empirical facts on the dynamics of perceived inflation rates for EU countries. First, we find that perceptions are inefficient and highly heteroge- neous, yet contemporaneously related to the actual rate of inflation. Second, similar to studies on inflation expectations,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731480

When Do Firms Adjust Prices? Evidence from Micro Panel Data

Rupprecht, Sarah M. - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2007

This paper analyzes the price setting behavior of firms using data from a large panel of quarterly firm surveys from 1984 to 2006. These data allow to track changes in firms’ prices, their price expectations and several other firm-specific developments such as changes in costs for input...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005515978

Regional interest rate pass-through in Italy

Montagnoli, Alberto; Napolitano, Oreste; Siliverstovs, … - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2012

This paper estimates the pass-through and speed of adjustment of Italian regional interest rates to changes in the money market rate for the period 1998Q1-2009Q4. Our main findings suggest that the markup for the lending rates that banks charge are generally higher in the South than in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010565954

Updating Inflation Expectations

Lamla, Michael J.; Sarferaz, Samad - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2012

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010539637