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Abstract: The European sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the GIPS countries after 2008. We present a theory, which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in Southern Europe between 1998 and 2012. Our key theoretical argument is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011199228
This paper develops a quantitative model of contagion of financial crisis and sovereign default for small open … explanation of the contagion of financial crises. The model shows that whenever a country suffers a domestic shock that forces it …, producing a contagion of the crisis in those countries whose fundamentals are not solid enough. Also, even when the crisis in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652932
existence of financial contagion during this crisis, defined as the international transmission of country-specific shocks beyond … the normal channels of financial interdependence. Since contagion relates purely to country-specific shocks, we combine … the standard contagion test of Favero and Giavazzi (2002) with an innovative narrative approach to separate out global and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114307
The global financial and economic crisis revealed institutional weaknesses and structural problems of particular Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries. The crisis and slowdown that followed had an impact on their relative competitiveness. Financial and economic turbulences of recent years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107690
In 1993, Czechoslovakia experienced a two-fold break-up: On January 1st, the country disintegrated as a political union, while preserving an economic and monetary union. Then, the Czech-Slovak monetary union collapsed on February 8th. We analyze the economic background of the two break-ups, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011092912
several possible trade and financial linkages among the Asian economies. We construct a series of “contagion vulnerability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836080
The Greek parliamentary elections in January .2015 led to a foreseeable change in government. The coalition government between the conservative Nea Dimokratia and of the socialist PASOK, become replaced. by a coalition government between the left wing coalition party SYRIZA and the extreme...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011185382
The European Monetary Union is characterized by a crisis of governance, this has become more evident with the crisis of the euro which has shown the weaknesses of the European institutions and stressed the heterogeneity of member countries. The global financial crisis struck the euro area very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258694
In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531924
Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531929