Showing 1 - 10 of 51
We consider a noisy rational expectations equilibrium in a multi-asset economy populated by informed and uninformed investors, and noise traders. Informed investors privately observe an aggregate risk factor affecting the probabilities of different states of the economy. Uninformed investors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011126052
volatility into these four sources, quantify their contribution to aggregate volatility, and study how they relate to the stage …, and slowly increases at later stages of development. Third, the volatility of country-specific macroeconomic shocks falls … with the level of development. We argue that many theories linking volatility and development are not consistent with these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884605
GARCH models are commonly used as latent processes in econometrics, financial economics and macroeconomics. Yet no exact likelihood analysis of these models has been provided so far. In this paper we outline the issues and suggest a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884643
already discussed in the literature. We also propose a new estimation procedure based on a localization of the econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884733
lower the volatility of output growth. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit incentives. The … decline in volatility thus arises as a by-product of firms’ incentives to increase profits and is hence a likely outcome of … that for reasonable parameter values, the model can generate a decline in volatility with the level of development …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010928680
Markets reacted strongly to the World Trade Center attacks both in Europe and in the United States. The extent of this crisis was difficult to assess at the time, underlining the need for a specific tool to measure the magnitude of financial crises. A first measure was recently proposed and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010744901
This paper estimates the implied stochastic process of the volatility of the Swiss market index (SMI) from the prices … option pricing model of Duan (1991), the implied volatility process is estimated by a simulation minimization method from … option price data. We find the persistence of volatility shocks implied by options on the SMI to be very close to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010746119
already discussed in the literature. We also propose a new estimation procedure based on a localization of the econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010746316
regard to the 'news impact' function. We propose an estimation method that is based on kernel smoothing and profiled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011126295
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011126328