need a representative policymaker’s utility function (as in the literature on ambiguity), a reference model (as in robust … control theory) or some prior probability distribution over the set of supplied scenarios (as in Bayesian model …

This paper explores the sources of uncertainty that cause firms to revise their capital investment plans and the stock … market to revise its valuation of those firms. A simple method is developed to decompose the uncertainty governing revisions … idiosyncratic uncertainty, but common disturbances are more important for movements in the stock market rate of return. …

This paper investigates the relationship between infation uncertainty and investment using a panel of loan-level data … aggregates. The data show that periods of increased inflation uncertainty are associated with substantial reductions in total … models of investment under uncertainty. …

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on … investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed … both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment …

households reacted to the increase in uncertainty about the future path of income that such an event produced. Our estimates are …

Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban … Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty …. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in …

. The notorious prevalence of risk, uncertainty and ignorance makes it difficult, however, to state which parts of it should …

orchard with heterogeneous beliefs, stochastic macro-economic uncertainty, and default risk. I study two manifestations of … uncertainty, namely (i) agents’ disagreement and (ii) time-varying volatility of fundamental growth rates. The paper shows that … moments of the risk premium distribution. Together with uncertainty, default risk associated with levered trees implies a non …

To what extent does economic analysis of climate change depend on low-probability, high-impact events? This question …