This paper models uctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonsta- tionary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate uctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state| regardless of...

This paper presents evidence from a panel investigation of OECD countries that inflationary pressures tend to be stronger during recovery from financial crises compared to recovery from non-crisis economic downturns, indicating impairment in productive potential.

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between the supply of credit and the macroeconomy. We present evidence that credit shocks constitute shocks to aggregate supply in that they have a permanent effect on output and cause inflation to rise in the short term. Our results also...

In this paper I argue that the financial crisis is likely to have a long term impact on the level of labour productivity in the UK while leaving the long run growth rate unaffected. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP...

We analyse the Generalised Hyperbolic distribution as a model for fat tails and asymmetries in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models. We provide a standardised version of this distribution, obtain analytical expressions for the log-likelihood score, and explain how...

We consider a multivariate continuous time process, generated by a system of linear stochastic differential equations, driven by white noise and involving coefficients that possibly vary over time. The process is observable only at discrete, but not necessarily equally-spaced, time points...

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish the consistency of the least squares estimator of the...

A well known result is that the Gaussian log-likelihood can be expressed as the sum over different frequency components. This implies that the likelihood ratio statistic has a similar linear decomposition. We exploit these observations to devise diagnostic methods that are useful for...

Instrumental variables estimation is classically employed to avoid simultaneous equations bias in a stable environment. Here we use it to improve upon ordinary least squares estimation of cointegrating regressions between nonstationary and/or long memory stationary variables where the...

We investigate the possible existence of asymmetries among Euro Area countries reactions to the European Central Bank monetary policy. Our analysis is based on a Structural Dynamic Factor model estimated on a large panel of quarterly variables including data on the aggregate Euro Area, as well...