Showing 1 - 10 of 494
In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163496
In this paper we study how the use of collateral is evolving under the influence of regulatory reform and changing market structure. We start with a critical review of the recent empirical literature on the supply and demand of collateral which has focussed on the issue of ‘collateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163500
The optimal capital growth strategy or Kelly strategy, has many desirable properties such as maximizing the asympotic long run growth of capital. However, it has considerable short run risk since the utility is logarithmic, with essentially zero Arrow-Pratt risk aversion. Most investors favor a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163505
This paper approaches the PPP puzzle by using the Bitcoin/US Dollar exchange rate. The use of the virtual currency as macroeconomic laboratory allows us to remove frictions that previously impeded the empirical demonstration of the law of one price. We show that price adjustments are still far...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163507
This paper shows that the current market infrastructure systemically prevents investors, both shareholders and bondholders, from exercising their rights against issuers. Equity and debt securities are now normally held through a chain of custodians. These custodians are connected with each other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163509
This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163510
This paper argues that there is nothing anomalous about the flypaper effect. I develop a simple median voter model of government spending with costly tax collection that predicts the flypaper effect and provide a quantifiable measure of its magnitude. Using the model insights and previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011125879
The latest CEP Election Analysis gives an overview of the research evidence on education policy, one of the key battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011125881
The paper discusses community enforcement in infinitely repeated two-action games with local monitoring. Each player interacts with and observes only a fixed set of partners, of whom he is privately informed. The main result shows that for generic beliefs efficiency can be sustained in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011125885
This paper analyzes the theoretical underpinnings of high-frequency repayment, a feature in nearly all microfinance contracts that has been largely overlooked by theorists. The pervasive belief among practitioners that frequent repayment is critical in achieving high repayment rates is puzzling....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011125892