We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has called many but not all crashes. Those called have high...

In judgment aggregation, unlike preference aggregation, not much is known about domain restrictions that guarantee consistent majority outcomes. We introduce several conditions on individual judgments sufficient for consistent majority judgments. Some are based on global orders of propositions...

Bajari, Benkard and Levin (2007) propose an estimation methodology for a broad class of dynamic optimization problems. To carry out their procedure, one needs to select a set of alternative policy functions and compare the implied expected payoffs with that from the data. We show that this can...

This paper examines the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (GMLE) in the context of a general form of spatial autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) processes with finite second moment. The ARMA processes are supposed to be causal and invertible under the half-plane unilateral order, but...